Centre for Monitoring Democratic Processes «Quorum»

April 13th, 2009. A round table on a theme "Color revolutions: yesterday, today, tomorrow" has passed in Moscow. Round table organised by the Center for Monitoring Democratic Processes "Quorum".

In action have taken part:

• Center of social and political researches "Aspect"
• National Union of Students
• International institute of the newest states
• Aleksey Martynov, the political scientist, the international expert
• Igor Kaminnik (Ukraine), the leading expert on problems of national and social groups
• Oleg Vernik (Ukraine), the senior lecturer of chair of state law of the Kiev university of Shevchenko
• Mateusz Piskorski (Poland), the doctor of political sciences, the president of the European Center of the Geopolitical Analysis
• A.Chachua (Georgia), the political scientist

Within the limits of a round table has passed discussion of recent national excitements in Republic Moldova and opposition performances in Georgia.

After parliamentary elections in Republic Moldova meeting of the protest of opposition has outgrown in mass riots in which by official estimations 300 persons have suffered nearby and the building перламента has been set fire. Opponents of the president accuse government of Voronin of mass infringements of electoral process, declaring that lists of voters have been garbled, and names of not registered and died persons there have been brought. From its part, the president accuses the next Romania of instigation to disorders.

Removal of the decision by the Constitutional court of Moldova about a vote recount became a result. The higher judicial instance has satisfied the petition of the president of the country of Vladimir Voronin for recalculation of bulletins - but not opposition requirements.

As a whole participants of a round table have come to the general conclusion that, at first sight, it is available all signs of «after-elections» revolutions, the first of all - the protested results of elections. Nevertheless, dynamics of the Moldavian events – other because there were no the accurate political requirements shown by opposition directly in the street. The protest has passed at once in a stage of street struggle, aggression and capture of office buildings has begun. It differs from the general scenario of "colour democratic revolutions" a little.

In many respects this spontaneous indignation of the people, a role of traditional opposition it is minimum. The traditional serious political opposition was not the present motor of these events. It, most likely, represented only original registration of an event. And she named the concrete reason of the protest – necessity to reconsider forged, in its opinion, results of elections. In this case it the occasion was faster. Both in Kiev, and in Tbilisi, and even – at all aggression of the Kyrgyz revolution – in Bishkek is there was an essence of the matter. And here it was the occasion because something absolutely other, something is ready more the general, more emotional, namely mood of the gone out of doors people, has played a leading role.

As a whole, consequences will be smaller than if the protest had less rough character if it has been better well-founded and supported by leaders of opposition as there is no time in Ukraine or in Georgia. But nevertheless, a path already weared. The scenario of "colour revolution" is possible further, but not now.

In Georgia strong easing of "orange" is observed.

By different estimations, from 60 to 100 thousand supporters of opposition left on streets Tbilisi, demanding resignation of the president M. Saakashvili. Protest actions became regular. So mass protest actions can speak about serious problems of existence of the "orange" power in Georgia.

Several years ago people left in support of the new "orange" power, now the population was disappointed and again in large quantities leave on protest action against Saakashvili's government. The political situation in Ukraine also speaks about easing of "orange" modes.

Action passed with information support of agency "REGNUM"