Centre for Monitoring Democratic Processes «Quorum»

Stanislav Belkovsky, the founder of Institute of national strategy:

Initially the Kremlin tried to transform elections of the mayor of Sochi into frank buffoonery on purpose not only to show that present fulfilling duties of the town governor and to the former mayor of Anapa Anatoly Pahomov there is no alternative, but also on purpose to discredit elections of heads of municipal unions as those. That then to bring parliament an attention to the question on cancellation of elections and transition to actual appointment of mayors. Volochkova, Bogdanov and other technical candidates have been with that end in view put forward. However today it is obvious that this plan has not worked, and the Kremlin in a mass order removes балаганных candidates, and also any candidates who can take away from Pahomova at least a percent share. In particular, as we know, today through court the representative of "Fair Russia" mister Kurpitko has been removed from elections. It is connected by that the sociological researches which have been not engaged, and real, show that the second round is almost inevitable and in the second round together with Pahomov there is Boris Nemtsov. Thus the cumulative electorate of oppositional candidates, first of all Nemtsov and chapters Sochi regional committee Jury Dzaganija's Communist Party of the Russian Federation surpasses number of voters of Pahomov which is perceived in Sochi not only as a figure neutral, but also as a frank stranger who for the majority of voters of a city of Sochi is external hostile force. Abundantly clear that the Kremlin will not admit not only victories of the oppositional candidate, but also the second round, and all power of an administrative resource, however the first step will be for this purpose involved is зачистка all candidates who could take away something from Pahomov.

As to discharge from participation in Alexander Lebedev's selective race I believe that Lebedev was not up to the end defined, whether he wishes to be really the mayor of Sochi or its election campaign is means to bargain with the Kremlin. Therefore for me also it is unevident, whether is removal from a distance a measure hostile in relation to Lebedev or it answers Lebedev's desire with honour to leave this game in which it and has not found the definitive strategy. Though I consider that if Lebedev went up to the end if it conducted the developed full-scale election campaign along with Nemtsov it would have fine chances to leave in the second round. Naturally, under condition of fair and transparent elections which in Sochi, certainly, will not be, and we perfectly understand it.

 

Igor Dachenkov, the political scientist, the vice-president of the All-Russian public fund «Forward planning Fund»:

Today preschedule voting by elections of the mayor of Sochi has begun. Thereupon it is necessary to note two moments. The first is the institute of preschedule voting in Russia undergoes recently certain changes. It is connected by that at a stage of preschedule voting, especially when is a question of election campaigns where the candidate is supported by an administrative resource, the greatest volume of falsifications of elective results is possible. For this reason selective practice of last several years has convinced a number of regional election committees of refusing institute of preschedule voting. For example, it is characteristic for the Bryansk region where in due time at a stage досрочки serious enough falsifications with application of known technology were spent: a) mobilisation marginal electorate and bringing up it to sites; b) the writing of lime statements on absence in day of voting and consequently necessity on ostensibly good reason to vote before. Business accordingly reached practically the direct criminal acts connected with opening of voting boxes and throwing in these urns of bulletins in which in advance there was a mark opposite to a surname of the concrete candidate. Therefore, as I have already told, in a number of regions this practice is cancelled. But here and there it remained.

There are certain parametres of so-called electoral statistics which can show precisely enough, how much preschedule voting is possible to consider results to some extent forged. As a rule, the normal indicator досрочки does not exceed 1 %. But, for example, on campaigns of federal level when local authorities needed to make serious enough result for concrete political force, be it party or a personnel, accordingly, these indicators could reach to 5 % and even 10 % in separate regions. Therefore, in my opinion, if results of preschedule voting do not exceed known degree of an electoral error, conditionally speaking, will settle in a corridor of 1-3 %, it will be normal. If they exceed 5 % it will be a certain indicator of mobilisation of an administrative resource for the concrete candidate supported by the party in power which to Sochi is represented fulfilling duties of the mayor by Anatoly Pahomov.

The second moment. Certainly, preschedule voting, in my opinion, is not the basic electoral resource of this or that candidate. Besides, if speech does not go about any menacing figures on the statistican, by its results. In any case day of voting defines the main result and represents the main electoral reserve as all occurs in an election day. But at that situation which has now developed in Sochi when odious candidates are registered some, I think that results of preschedule voting can be good help which finally will move a bowl of scales in favour of this or that candidate. As preschedule voting is in many respects supervised by a resource of election committee which is in turn incorporated in the general administrative resource, I think that here it is not necessary to philosophise crafty to guess, for whom preschedule voting will be an additional electoral resource.

As to a question on the one whom at the given stage it is possible to consider as the favourite of pre-election race it seems to me that in any case it is necessary to lean against results of electoral diagnostics and rating sociological gaugings which, I think, spend selective staffs of all candidates. As far as I know, the candidate from "United Russia" according to official figures is in the lead. But, in my opinion, at serious enough antirating which is at Boris Nemtsov, it has electoral chances of a prize. If to speak about any brightness of a content of election campaign I consider that from the point of view of the analysis of PR courses, from the point of view of communication activity all the same Nemtsov's campaign is interesting enough.

In general specificity of election campaign at the given stage consists in Sochi that candidates are put in rigid enough frameworks of an information field as the most part of mass-media, electronic and printing (newspapers, radio stations, TV, network resources on the Internet), has practically withdrawn from participation in elections, was not declared on propaganda campaign. Therefore candidates use alternative channels of a mass communication to which we carry PR actions, virus marketing, distribution of hearings. The same history has developed concerning the outdoor advertising. As it is known, a number of advertising agencies have simply blocked even under the paid contracts placing outdoor agitation from those or other candidates. In particular, it is known that Lebedev's selective staff has now legal proceedings with a number of advertising agencies. I think that here all threads conduct in city administration, that is the decision on is accepted blocking at informal level propaganda possibilities of alternative candidates - both in respect of mass-media, and in respect of the outdoor advertising, and in respect of release of propaganda printing materials. Therefore it is absolutely logical that the accent within the limits of information campaign for selective staffs is displaced towards BTL-actions. Therefore, in my opinion, in a context of realisation of these tools it is possible to name the most successful actions of a staff of Boris Nemtsov. At least in an information field - and federal, and in local - it is present and stage by stage spends the election campaign, of course, with a scandalous musty smell.